Modernizing Meat Production Will Help Us Avoid Pandemics
The coronavirus outbreak stresses the need to change how we make our meat.
The world is transfixed by the novel coronavirus outbreak spreading around the globe. It is becoming
clear that increasingly draconian lockdown measures and travel restrictions are often too little,
too late. Public health officials are pointing out that, at this point, containment is akin to
shutting the barn door after the horses have left.
However, in today's globalized world, the horses arguably left the barn long ago.
In addition to trying to round up the latest stampeding pandemic, we need to examine the
circumstances that enable these zoonotic diseases to leap from another species to humans.
Fortunately, we now know the circumstances that give rise to zoonotic outbreaks, and we have the
technology to vastly reduce this risk by modernizing our food system.
It is widely thought that Covid-19 emerged from a meat and wildlife market in Wuhan, China,
though the animal host immediately prior to its human leap has not yet been conclusively identified.
This proposed origin is entirely unsurprising. Just as national security agencies monitor
transmissions among suspected terrorist cells, scientists routinely monitor "viral chatter" in
two key harbinger populations: bushmeat hunters and slaughterhouse workers. Zoonotic viruses
almost always leap to humans directly from our livestock or from wildlife, the slaughter and hunting
of which bring susceptible human hosts in particularly close contact with live animals and their
infected tissues and fluids.
Both farmed and caged wild animals create the perfect breeding ground for zoonotic diseases.
Extraordinarily high population densities, prolonged heightened stress levels, poor sanitation,
and unnatural diets create a veritable speed-dating event for viruses to rendezvous with a weakened
human host and transcend the species barrier. In fact, we know that this happens routinely -- it's a
simple throw of the dice for one of these leaps to coincide with subtle adaptations that allow the
virus to transmit more efficiently from human to human. Swapping host species often allows
pathogens to take a more sinister turn, causing severe illness or death in their new host despite
only triggering mild symptoms in their animal reservoir.
Time and again, zoonotic viruses emerge from these contexts: wave after wave of avian flu,
swine flu, Nipah virus ... the list goes on. Given our current system, the risk of viruses leaping
to humans is a matter of when, not if. Shortly after the most virulent season of zoonotic H7N9
avian flu that emerged from poultry farms in China, Johns Hopkins' Dr. Amesh Adalja's alarm was
clear: "An H7N9 pandemic could well be worse -- perhaps much worse -- than the great pandemic
of 1918." The most recent report from the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board convened by the
World Health Organization didn't mince words either, opening with a prescient warning: "If it is
true to say 'what's past is prologue,' then there is a very real threat of a rapidly moving, highly
lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing 50 to 80 million people and wiping out nearly
5 percent of the world's economy ... The world is not prepared." Researchers at UC Davis' One Health
Institute are similarly blunt: "Few threats to human health have the potential to cause more impact
than emerging zoonoses."
Even when these viruses circulate only within their animal hosts, the threats to human prosperity
and food security are too high to bear. The current African Swine Fever Virus outbreak has been
responsible for an estimated 50 percent drop in pork production in the world's largest
pork-producing country and led to a dramatic rise in overall food prices. To add further insult to
injury, there are recent reports of a highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 avian flu emerging in China,
and many chicken farmers in locked-down regions have lost their entire flocks due to transit
disruptions of their feed supply.
Global consumers -- already in fragile circumstances from the prospects of prolonged economic
disruption -- are additionally subjected to food pricing volatility as a result of these
vulnerabilities of animal farming. These routine viral assaults on food security demonstrate that
regardless of the precise route of zoonotic transmission of the current Covid-19 outbreak,
our reliance on massive-scale animal farming is neither prudent nor pragmatic in the best of times
or the worst of times.
It's time to admit that we, as a civilization, have outgrown the dated notion of using animals to
produce meat. Hunting and animal farming served their purpose for millennia of human population
growth. But in 2020, we need to be brutally honest with ourselves. We can't keep doing this.
The current system is broken. It is inefficient, insecure, unsustainable, and extremely unsafe.
Fortunately, taking animals out of our food system is easier than we may think. As evidenced by
the enormous uptick in innovation, availability, and consumer interest in plant-based meats,
the whole meat category is being redefined. Meat is increasingly recognized as a sensory experience,
characterized by a specific combination of amino acids, fats, and minerals rather than by its
means of production. No animal has to be farmed or hunted and no disease has to be risked to
enjoy a juicy burger or a crispy nugget.
We are also likely to see cultivated meat (meat grown directly from animal cells, no slaughter
involved) enter the market sometime fairly soon, thanks to an influx of talent, investment,
and entrepreneurial activity. Both plant-based and cultivated meat products remove the food
insecurity and zoonotic disease concerns inherent in animal-based food. Modern plant-based and
cultivated meat production gives consumers a painless swap at the dinner table, along with massive
underlying benefits in safety and sustainability throughout the supply chain.
Governments are pouring immense resources into therapeutic and vaccine development programs
in a frantic attempt at damage control for the current outbreak. But none of this will prevent the
next, and potentially even worse, pandemic.
There's no time to waste in pushing forward solutions for what is likely the underlying cause of
this pandemic, and what has been at the root of dozens of prior zoonotic events. We can't afford
not to have the same level of urgency in directing funding, effort, and talent into accelerating the
development and deployment of safer, modern meat production methods. It is past time to
move away from animal-derived meat altogether. Rather than trying to close the door after the
horses have left, it's time to build a better barn.